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Principles of Forecasting

Update on Gore-Armstrong bet on global temperatures

on 12 January 2012.

Scott Armstrong offered to bet Al Gore that global mean temperatures would be closer to the 2007 average over the following ten years than they would be to the IPCC projection of a 0.03C per-year increase. Gore refused the bet but... 

Experts predict 2012 Presidential Election outcome

on 06 January 2012.

The PollyVote team has completed the first survey of election experts forecasts of the 2012 U.S. presidential election outcome. The 15-member expert panel predicts a very close election with President Barack Obama winning 50.7% of the popular vote. Details are available at PollyVote.com.

Aliases back for Special Interest Group users

on 05 January 2012.

In the changeover to the new ForPrin.com platform, some of the convenient aliases were no longer pointing at the correct pages. The aliases include conflictforecasting.com, marketsforforecasting.com, pollyvote.com, politicalforecasting.com, publicpolicyforecasting.com, and terrorismforecasting.com. They should all be working again, now. Please tell This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it if you know of any links to the ForPrin.com site that are not currently working.

Estimation beats statistical significance. Prediction intervals beat p values.

on 31 December 2011.

Quantitative forecasts, together with a confidence intervals or prediction intervals, are much more useful than p values or statements about statistical significance. A new book by Geoff Cumming, Understanding The New Statistics (Routledge, 2012),

Econometric Society conference in Melbourne, July 2012

on 27 December 2011.

The Econometric Society Australasian Meeting (ESAM) will be held in Melbourne, Australia, from the 3rd to 6th of June 2012. For details, see the Conferences Page

New Look ForPrin.com!

on 22 December 2011.

Welcome to the new look Forecasting Principles site! 

The old site platform was getting creaky, code was becoming corrupted, and replacement was overdue. After a marathon effort by the good people of Zoe Design, the site is in good shape again,

There have been  mod_vvisit_countermod_vvisit_countermod_vvisit_countermod_vvisit_countermod_vvisit_countermod_vvisit_countermod_vvisit_counter  visits to this website since February 14, 1998.
© Copyright 1997-2009 by J. Scott Armstrong. All rights are reserved. Web Design by Zoe Communications Ltd.
This site is directed by J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green.

The Forecasting Principles site was sponsored by the Marketing Department of The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania for the first nine years. The International Institute of Forecasters has been a sponsor since July 2006.