Scott Armstrong offered to bet Al Gore that global mean temperatures would be closer to the 2007 average over the following ten years than they would be to the IPCC projection of a 0.03C per-year increase. Gore refused the bet but... 

The PollyVote team has completed the first survey of election experts forecasts of the 2012 U.S. presidential election outcome. The 15-member expert panel predicts a very close election with President Barack Obama winning 50.7% of the popular vote. Details are available at PollyVote.com.

In the changeover to the new ForPrin.com platform, some of the convenient aliases were no longer pointing at the correct pages. The aliases include conflictforecasting.com, marketsforforecasting.com, pollyvote.com, politicalforecasting.com, publicpolicyforecasting.com, and terrorismforecasting.com. They should all be working again, now. Please tell This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it if you know of any links to the ForPrin.com site that are not currently working.

Quantitative forecasts, together with a confidence intervals or prediction intervals, are much more useful than p values or statements about statistical significance. A new book by Geoff Cumming, Understanding The New Statistics (Routledge, 2012),

The Econometric Society Australasian Meeting (ESAM) will be held in Melbourne, Australia, from the 3rd to 6th of June 2012. For details, see the Conferences Page. 

Welcome to the new look Forecasting Principles site! 

The old site platform was getting creaky, code was becoming corrupted, and replacement was overdue. After a marathon effort by the good people of Zoe Design, the site is in good shape again,