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2005 ISF International Symposium on Forecasting

At the 2005 International Society of Forecasters “International Symposium on Forecasting,” held June 12-15 in San Antonio, three panels were devoted to presidential elections forecasting. One was a Roundtable on Ray Fair’s Presidential Vote Equation, where Prof. Fair responded to critiques of his model. At two other sessions, several of the most successful presidential elections forecasting models were presented. All the papers are available here.

 Roundtable on Ray Fair’s Presidential Vote Equation

  • "Notes on a Critique of Ray Fair's Presidential Vote Forecasting Model," James E. Campbell - Full text
  • "Fair's Presidential Vote Equation and the Fiscal Model Compared," Alfred G. Cuzán and Charles M. Bundrick- Full text
  • "Comments on Ray Fair's Presidential Vote Model," Richard Gleisner- Full text
  • "Comments on Presidential Voting Models," Joe A. Stone- Full text
  • Response by Ray Fair- Full text

P2004 Presidential Elections Panels

  • "The Trial-Heat and Economy Forecasting Equation of the Presidential Vote: Interpreting Preference Polls in Context," James E. Campbell - Full text
  • "The Pollyvote: Applying the Combination Principle in Forecasting to the 2004 Presidential Election," Alfred G. Cuzán, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones, Jr.- Full text
  • "Forecasting the Presidential Vote: Forecasting from Leading Economic Indicators and Presidential Approval," Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien- Full text and Data
  • "A Review of Presidential Election Forecasting in 2004," Randall J. Jones, Jr.- Full text
  • "The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008," Allan Lichtman- Full text
  • "The Presidential Primaries Model," Helmut Norpoth - Full text