The net directional effect domain experts expect for a time series over the forecast horizon. Armstrong and
extrapolation is supporting, but such series are rare. Armstrong, Adya and Collopy (2001) discuss evidence related to the use of causal forces.
- Armstrong, J. S., M. Adya & F. Collopy (2001),
“Rule-based forecasting: Using judgment in time-series extrapolation,” in J. S. Armstrong
(ed.), Principles of Forecasting. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic
- Armstrong, J. S. & F. Collopy (1993), “Causal
forces: Structuring knowledge for time-series extrapolation,” Journal of
Forecasting, 12, 103-115. (Full