Important Errata for
J. Scott LongRange Forecasting, 2^{nd} Edition, 1985.
Return to Table of Contents
Chapter 
Page 
Paragraph 
Text Change 
1 
9 
first 
â€œmy interpretations were correctâ€ 
3 
44 
last 
â€œThe subscription rates of those in the scenario exercise were about double â€¦â€ 
5 
78 
3 
Makridakis and Wheelwright 1984: should read Wheelwright, Stephen C. and Makridakis, Spyros 
6 
102 
last 
â€œforecast the thickness of a thick piece of paperâ€ 

109 
2 
Rosenthal and Jacobsen (1968) 

114 
3 
Armstrong & Lusk (1987) 
7 
155 
4 
Henrichs 

159 
3 
â€œâ€¦ an assumption of stability of the transition matrix is made when Markov chains are used.â€ 

162 
1 
â€œwinsorizingâ€ [not windsorizing] 

170 
1 
Schnaars and Bavuso [1986] 

174 
2 
â€œâ€¦ the moving average did not have a trend factor.â€ [no comma after average] 

179 
4 
â€œâ€¦ indicators. Simple smoothing â€¦â€ 

184 
1 
Geurts [not Geruts] 
8 
196 
next to last 
â€œâ€¦ to choose variables that areâ€ 

226 
5 
â€œâ€¦ I surveyed a group of leading econometricians [Armstrong, 1978].â€ 

243 
1 
â€œfor the simple regression.â€ [not single] 
9 
263 
4 
â€œâ€¦ and then describes how the system changes over time.â€ 
10 
285 
2 
Delete â€œIt is also found in the large scale econometric models.â€ 


Exh. 105 
X_{4} = years of seniority in the current job 
12 
322 
3 
â€œThis chapterâ€ instead of â€œChapter 12â€ 

327 
1 
â€œBoth models were much more accurate than extrapolations during this period.â€ 
13 
344 
Theil Table 
â€œRoot Mean Square Errorsâ€ for heading of columns 25 

350 
4 
â€œR^{2} should not be used for the calibration sample. Instead you should use _{}(the adjusted R^{2}.â€ 

352 
Equation in 9 
_{} 

360 
Exh. 139 
Academics (n=62) and Practitioners (n=61) 
14 
384 
6 
â€œsearch for disconfirming evidence â€¦â€ 
15 
403 
last 
â€œA survey on econometric forecasting was conducted in late 1975 (Armstrong 1978).â€ 

405 
2 
â€œThe results in the following table â€¦â€ [no comma after results] 

410 
3 
â€œâ€¦ assumed that the 1960 party vote would be the same as the 1956 party voteâ€ 

412 
1 
â€œthe econometric model â€¦ was more accurate than the three extrapolation methodsâ€ 
17 
445 
1 
Armstrong & Lusk (1987) 
Appendices 
459 
2 
â€œSuppose that data are available on the population of a region â€¦â€ 



(The growth term is squared because there are two 10year intervals from 19601980.) 

495 
1 
Schnaars and Bavuso [1986] 
References 
517 

Armstrong 1978: (LRF 226, 403, 433) 

518 

Armstrong, Denniston, and Gordon 1975: Organizational Behavior and Human Performance; (LRF 58) [delete 181] 

520 

Bennion 1952: (LRF 199) [not 129] 



Best 1974: (LRF 118, 119, 141) 

529 

Crow and Noel 1965: 

547 

Kaplan et al. 1950: (LRF 120121, 136) 

555 

Mintz 1969: no parentheses around 875881 

557 

Nelson 1972: American Economic Review, 52 

564 

Schneidman 1971: â€œPerturbation and Lethality â€¦â€ 

565 

Sigall, H., Aronson, E., and van Hoose, T. 1970 

574 

Zajonc 1976: (LRF Page not available) 
Updated Bibliography 
578 

Ackoff 1983: vol. 20 

579 

Ahlburg 1984: â€œA mechanical adjustment â€¦â€ 

581 

Armstrong 1979: (LRF 437, 444) [not 437444) 

583 

Armstrong 1984a: vol. 14 (Nov.Dec.) 

584 

Add: Armstrong, J. Scott and Lusk, Edward J [1987], â€œReturn Postage in Mail Surveys: A MetaAnalysis,â€ Public Opinion Quarterly, vol 51 (2), 233248. 

585 

Ascher 1978: (LRF 47, 687) 

591 

Camerer 1981: â€œGeneral conditions for the success of bootstrapping models,â€ 

592 

Carbone and Gorr 1985: Decisions Sciences, vol. 16, pp. 153160 [replaces in press] 

595 

Collins 1976: â€œThe segmented econometric models were more accurate â€¦â€ 

596 

Replace Dalrymple 1985 reference for working paper: Dalrymple, Douglas J. [1987], â€œSales forecasting practices: results from a 1983 

599 

Dielman 1985: Journal of Forecasting [not International Journal of Forecasting] 

606 

Fischer 1982: vol. 29 

609 



610 

Glass 1976: (LRF 444) 



Glass et al. 1981: (LRF 445) 

620 

Lawrence et al. 1985: International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 1, pp. 2535. 

623 

Makridakis et al. 1982: (LRF â€¦ 348 â€¦) [not 454] 

624 

Makridakis and Wheelwright 1984: should read Wheelwright, Stephen C. and Makridakis, Spyros 

627 

McWhorter et al. 1987 continuation, line 4: â€œâ€¦ from 1950.I to 1970.IVâ€ 

628 

Mitchell and Klimoski 1982 continuation, line 4: â€œ â€¦ used the same subsample, but it started â€¦â€ 

630 

Morris 1981: â€œWill such procedures improve our ability to forecast? (My guess is â€œNo.â€) That is a good topic for further research.â€ 



Mosteller and Tukey 1977: (LRF 24, 196, 341) 

631 

Murphy and Brown 1984: (LRF 142, 272, 424) 

637 

Reid et al. 1981: Journal of Advertising [not Journal of Advertising Research] 

641 

Schnaars and Bavuso 1986 [not 1985]: â€œExtrapolation models on very shortterm forecasts,â€ Journal of Business Research, vol. 14, pp. 2736. 

643 

Shrader et al. 1984: â€œâ€¦ to 14 comparisons favoring formal planning, 4 ties, and 2 favoring informal planning.â€ 

645 

Stewart and Glantz 1985: vol 7, no. 2, pp. 159183. 

646 

Sudman and Bradburn 1982 [not 1983] 

648 

Wagennar et al. 1985: Ergonomics, vol. 28, pp. 756772. 
People Index 
654 

Ascher [not ASCHER] 

654 

Add Ayton, Peter, 585 

662 

Makridakis, Spyros, omit 454 

664 

Ohlin, Lloyd E., 354, 558 [not 221, 531] 

667 

Stengel, Casey, 653 [not 753] 

669 

Wheelwright, Steven C., add 649 
Subject Index 
672 

Anticipations, 536 [not 537] 

673 

Backcasting, add 343345 

680 

Pharaoh [not Pharoh] 

681 

Political forecasting, 636, 646 [not 636646] 

683 

Suicides, 564 [not 562] 



Theilâ€™s U, 579 [not 578] 

685 

Winsorizing [not Windsorizing] 




LongRange Forecasting (2nd Edition), J. Scott Armstrong, 1985
First published in 1977, LongRange Forecasting was updated in 1985. A review of the 1st edition was printed in the Atlantic Economic Journal, 1979; in it, Gordon Welty called the book "comprehensive, readable, and witty."
The book is designed to answer the question "Which forecasting method is best to use in a given situation?" LongRange Forecasting covers judgmental, extrapolation, and econometric methods. The conclusions are based on the author's research as well as on over 1050 books and papers on forecasting in economics, sociology, medicine, politics, weather, finance, personnel, marketing, and other areas. It remains as the only comprehensive summary of research on forecasting prior to 1985.
The second edition of Long Range Forecasting is provided here in full text in Acrobat PDF format (Note: some of the files are quite large and may take a long time to download over a slower Internet connection). Many of the conclusions in Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners draw upon research summarized in LongRange Forecasting. In view of this, we have tried to make the book easy to search. Bookmarks for each chapter have been provided; simply set your Acrobat reader to view bookmarks, click on a section, and you will be taken to that page. To search for specific words and phrases, use the Find button (binoculars) and the Find Again button (binoculars with a right arrow). Errata for the book is provided at the end of the Table of Contents.
[The book is now out of print, although used copies and a review are available at amazon.com. Duplicated bound copies are available at $35, which includes tax, shipping, and handling for domestic sales. For foreign sales, include an additional $5 for postage. You can pay by credit card. Send to Campus Copy (Attention: Ronald Shapiro), 3907 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104; phone (215) 3866410; fax (215) 3866268.]
Table of Contents
Part I  Getting Started
Chapter 1  Introduction: Introductory Pages, end matter, and pp. 111
Preface to 1985 Edition Â¤ Acknowledgements Â¤ Preface to First Edition Â¤ Instructions to the Reader Â¤ Contents Â¤ Exhibits List Â¤ Chapter 1  Introduction Â¤ The Scope of this Book  Forecasting vs. Planning  Forecasting and Decision Making Â¤ The Approach Used in LRF Â¤ An Overview of the Book Â¤ SummaryChapter 2  The Systems Approach: pp. 1322
Description of the Systems Approach  Identifying Objectives  Indicators of Success  Alternative Strategies  Developing Programs Â¤ Violating the Systems Approach Â¤ Other Good Advice Â¤ SummaryChapter 3  Implementation: pp. 2349
A Framework for Implementation Â¤ Finding Problems Â¤ Agreeing on Problems Â¤ Proposing Alternative Solutions Â¤ Gaining Commitment  Experimentation  Participation  Feedback Â¤ When Commitment Fails Â¤ Gaining Acceptance of the Forecast  Prior Commitment  Scenarios  Presenting the Forecast Â¤ SummaryChapter 4  Research Strategies: pp. 5068
Using Theory Â¤ Decomposition Â¤ Eclectic Research  Importance of Eclectic Research  Evidence on Eclectic Research  Multiple Methods and Multiple Hypotheses Â¤ Summary
Part II  Forecasting Methods
Chapter 5  Classifying the Forecasting Methods: pp. 6978
Subjective vs. Objective Methods Â¤ Naive vs. Causal Methods Â¤ Linear vs. Classification Methods Â¤ Methodology Tree Â¤ Describing Forecasting Methods Â¤ SummaryChapter 6  Judgmental Methods: pp. 79149
Types of Judgmental Forecasts  Intentions  Opinions Â¤ Errors in Judgment  Bias  Anchoring Â¤ Selecting Judges  Intentions  Expert Opinion Â¤ Posing the Question  Presenting Information  Scaling  Sensitive Issues Â¤ Obtaining the Forecasts  Surveys  Delphi  Traditional Meetings  Structured Meetings  Group Depth Interview  Role Playing  Choosing a Method Â¤ Combined Forecasts Â¤ Assessing Uncertainty  SelfAssessments  Comparisons among Forecasts Â¤ SummaryChapter 7  Extrapolation Methods: pp. 151189
Data for Extrapolation  Historical Data  Simulated Data Â¤ Analyzing the Data  Markov Chains  Exponential Smoothing  Moving Averages  BoxJenkins  Regressions  Comparisons of Extrapolation Methods  Cycles and Fancy Curves Â¤ Combined Forecasts Â¤ Assessing Uncertainty Â¤ SummaryChapter 8  Econometric Methods: pp. 191247
Conditions Favoring the Use of Econometric Methods Â¤ A Priori Analysis  Causal Variables: Less is More  Direction of Relationships  Pattern of Causality  Functional Form  Magnitudes of Relationships  A Priori Model Â¤ Stepwise Regression Â¤ Objective Data  Multiple Data Sources  A Priori Analysis of the Data Â¤ Analyzing the Data  Experience Tables  Regression Analysis  Value of Simplicity Â¤ Updating the Estimates Â¤ Estimating Current Status Â¤ Forecasting Change  Mitigation  Reducing the Errors Â¤ Combined Forecasts Â¤ Assessing Uncertainty Â¤ SummaryChapter 9  Segmentation Methods: pp. 249270
Conditions Favoring Segmentation Â¤ Versus Judgmental Methods  Versus Econometric Methods Â¤ A Priori Analysis  Select Causal Variables  Specify Causal Variables  Select Cutpoints  Forecast Population by Segment  Forecast Behavior within Segments Â¤ Data for Segmentation Â¤ Analyzing the Data  Trees  Dependent Segmentation Â¤ Current Status vs. Change Â¤ Combined Forecasts Â¤ Assessing Uncertainty Â¤ SummaryChapter 10  Bootstrapping and Other Combined Methods: pp. 271293
Guidelines for Combining Methods Â¤ Bootstrapping  Direct Bootstrapping  Indirect Bootstrapping  Accuracy of Bootstrapping  When to Use Bootstrapping Â¤ Econometric Methods Within Segments Â¤ Leading Indicators Â¤ Combined Forecasts Â¤ Uncertainty Â¤ Summary
Part III  Evaluation
Chapter 11  Evaluation Schemes: pp. 295320
Multiple Models Â¤ When and What to Evaluate  A Priori Framework  A Posteriori Framework  Inputs and Outputs Â¤ Evaluating Acceptability Â¤ Evaluating Quality  From the Real World to the Assumptions  From the Assumptions to the Model  From the Model to the Outputs  From the Outputs to the Real World Â¤ Scoresheet for Evaluating Models Â¤ Evaluating the Forecasting System Â¤ SummaryChapter 12  Testing Inputs: pp.321331
Validity and Reliability Â¤ Testing the Model Building Process Â¤ Testing the Variables Â¤ Testing the Relationships Â¤ SummaryChapter 13  Testing Outputs: pp. 333361
Conditional vs. Unconditional Forecasts Â¤ Situations for Testing Outputs  Calibration  Concurrent Validity  Forecast Validity  Backcast Validity  Ranking the Validation Tests Â¤ Testing Accuracy  Measure of Accuracy  Rating the Measures of Accuracy  Statistical and Practical Significance  Popularity of the Criteria  Benchmarks for Accuracy Â¤ Summary
Part IV  Comparing Methods
Chapter 14  Cost and Benefits of the Forecasting Methods: pp. 363386
Developmental Costs Â¤ Maintenance Costs Â¤ Operating Costs Â¤ Assessing Uncertainty Â¤ Assessing Alternative Futures Â¤ Learning  Problems with Judgmental Learning  Improving Judgmental Learning Â¤ SummaryChapter 15  An Evaluation of Accuracy: pp. 387420
Value of Improving Accuracy Â¤ Describing the Forecasting Situation  Complexity of the Behavior  Knowledge About the Situation  Change in the Environment Â¤ Hypotheses on Accuracy of Methods vs. Situations Â¤ Objective vs. Subjective Methods  Small Changesâ€“Few Data  Small Changesâ€“Many Data  Large Changesâ€“Few Data  Large Changesâ€“Many Data Â¤ Naive vs. Causal Methods  Survey of Experts  Empirical Evidence Â¤ Linear vs. Classification Methods  Few Dataâ€“Minor Data Problems  Few Dataâ€“Major Data Problems  Many Dataâ€“Minor Data Problems  Many Dataâ€“Major Data Problems Â¤ Summary
Part V  Commencement
Chapter 16  Trends in the Use of Forecasting Methods: pp. 421430
From Subjective to Objective Â¤ From Naive to Causal Â¤ From Classification to Linear and Back Again Â¤ Trends in LongRange Forecasting Â¤ The Rain Dance Â¤ SummaryChapter 17  Research on Forecasting Methods: pp. 431446
Persistence of Folklore Â¤ Research Strategies Â¤ Specific Research Areas  Implementation  Judgment  Extrapolation  Econometrics  Segmentation  Bootstrapping  Combined Forecasts Â¤ MetaAnalysis Â¤ Summary
Appendices: pp. 447495
A. On the Value of Improved Accuracy in Forecasting
B. Effect of Errors in Measurement on Extrapolations
C. Tables for Statistical Significance with Multiple Comparisons
D. Brief Guide to Sources Useful in Forecasting
E. The Value of Decomposition: A Theoretical Argument
F. Comments and Answers to Questions
G. Rules for Cheaters
H. The Virtue of Simplicity
I. The Wizard Who Oversimplified a Fable
J. Forecast Accuracy of Simple vs. Sophisticated Extrapolation Methods
Glossary: pp. 497512
Symbols and Acronyms
Glossary of Terms AZ
References, with Ratings and Annotations: pp 513575
Updated Bibliography, 19771985, with Summaries: pp. 577652
People Index: pp. 653669
Subject Index: pp. 671685
Books Available Online in FullText









Discussion of Principles in Text and Trade Books
Some books can help in the implementation of forecasting principles. However, as shown by Cox & Loomis (2001) in Principles of Forecasting, the books discuss few principles (table: summary of principles mentioned) and differ in their coverage of principles (table: summary by book).