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Judgmental Forecasting Experiment

We are inviting you to participate in a web-based judgmental forecasting exercise. You are asked to provide forecasts for 20 quarterly time series. Your forecasts should be based purely on your judgment and not on statistical approaches.

The exercise consists of three rounds. The first round will include just 4 series and will serve as a “warm-up” round. The other two rounds will contain 8 time series each. Detailed instructions will be given prior of each round. Rounds 2 and 3 are followed by short questionnaires. You may complete the exercise at once (preferred option) or in multiple instances. Your progress will be saved and you may resume at your convenience. The experiment will take place from May 1, 2013 to June 5, 2013.

Your final performance will be calculated as a total rank based on two measures (Mean Percentage Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error), so that both bias and accuracy are taken into account. The participants with the top three performances will be awarded with Amazon Gift Cards (£20 each).

You can access the web-based exercise here: http://www.forsoc.eu

Thank you in advance for your participation!

_____________________________________________

Dr. Fotios Petropoulos

Senior Research Associate
Department of Management Science – Lancaster Centre for Forecasting
Lancaster University Management School, A51, Lancaster, LA1 4YX  | M: +44 (0) 7568570968