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Diffusion of Forecasting Principles

Abstract of "Diffusion of forecasting principles through books, " James E. Cox, Jr. and David G. Loomis, Illinois State University


We evaluated 18 forecasting books to determine the extent to which they incorporate forecasting principles. The authors of Principles of Forecasting (Armstrong 2001) have identified 139 principles. On average, we found that only 19 percent of the 139 forecasting principles were mentioned in the books reviewed. The weakest coverage is in the areas of collecting data, assessing uncertainty, and presenting forecasts. Even in the areas of best coverage – setting objectives, preparing data, and implementing quantitative methods – only one-third of the principles were mentioned. We found that none of the 18 books incorporated very many of the 139 forecasting principles. The highest rated book mentions only 47 principles.

Summary of Forecasting Principles by Book

Category (Number of Principles)

BP

CH

De

Di

GK

HR

HP

MW

MB

Me

PR

WK

WG

Total

Setting Objectives (5)

3

1

3

2

0

3

1

3

2

1

1

3

1

29

Structuring the Problem (7)

2

1

2

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

2

2

24

Identifying Information Sources (5)

2

1

3

0

2

3

0

2

1

1

1

2

2

22

Collecting Data (6)

0

0

0

0

0

4

0

0

2

3

0

0

0

11

Preparing Data (8)

5

0

5

3

5

1

1

5

0

3

0

3

1

42

Selecting Methods (10)

7

4

4

2

1

6

4

6

3

2

1

2

3

49

Implementing Methods (General) (7)

4

2

2

2

3

3

1

3

0

2

0

1

0

30

Implementing Judgmental Methods (8)

0

0

2

1

1

1

1

3

3

7

0

1

4

29

Implementing Quantitative Methods (5)

3

1

3

0

4

1

0

4

3

0

2

3

0

29

Implementing Methods (Explanatory) (9)

2

1

3

2

2

0

2

2

2

1

2

3

2

40

Integrating Judgment and Quantitative Methods (5)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

1

3

0

1

5

12

Combining Forecasts (10)

0

2

3

4

3

0

4

2

0

4

1

4

6

43

Evaluating Methods (32)

7

6

9

5

9

4

2

9

6

8

1

5

2

88

Assessing Uncertainty (13)

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

1

0

0

2

1

0

14

Presenting Forecasts (5)

3

0

1

0

0

0

0

1

0

2

0

2

1

10

Learning (4)

3

0

2

0

0

2

0

3

1

0

0

1

0

12

Total Mentions (139)

42

20

43

25

33

30

17

47

25

38

11

34

29

48


BP Bails and Peppers (1993)


MW Makridakis, Wheelwright, and Hyndman (1998)

CH Clements and Hendry (1998, 1999)

MB Mentzer and Bienstock (1998)

De DeLurgio (1998)

Me Metcalfe (1995)

Di Diebold (1998)

PR Pindyck and Rubinfeld (1998)

GK Gaynor and Kirkpatrick (1994)

WK Wilson and Keating (1998)

HR Hanke and Reitsch (1998)

WG Wright and Goodwin (1998)

HP Holden, Peel, and Thompson (1990)

 

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