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For Practitioners
For Researchers
For Educators

For Practitioners

Individuals and Organizations providing help, advice, or data

Forecasting

Conflict Management and Negotiation

Judgment and Decision Making

Strategy

Politics and War

Terrorism Forecasting Resources

Game Theory and Experimental Economics

Influential Books and Lists of Books That May be Useful

Forecasting

Conflict Management

Judgment and Decision Making

  • Cambridge University Press catalogue, put "decision making" in the "Series" field
  • Harold A. Linsone and Murray Turoff (eds), The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications, 1975. A full-text pdf version is available on-line.

Strategy

Politics

Game Theory and Experimental Economics


Tools and software (under development)

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For Researchers

  • Need for further research

Considering the frequency and cost of inaccurate forecasts, there has been remarkably little research comparing methods for forecasting decisions in conflicts. Research along the following lines is needed:

  • determine the conditions that favour different methods
  • replicate previous research
  • forecast conflicts that are unresolved at the time of forecasting
  • examine the effect of the number of decision options on accuracy
  • investigate forecasting conflicts in stages
  • investigate the effect of variations in descriptions.
  • Politics and War research
  • Conflict descriptions

The ten diverse conflicts described below have been used in research on forecasting decisions in conflicts. They are all conflicts that actually occurred – all but two were disguised in their descriptions in order to avoid research participants identifying them. Five were written by Scott Armstrong and colleagues. They are: Artists Protest, Distribution Channel, 55% Pay Plan, Journal Negotiations, and Panalba Drug Policy. More recently, Kesten Green wrote Nurses Dispute, Personal Grievance, Telco Takeover, Water Dispute, and Zenith Investment.

You may be surprised at the length of the situation and role descriptions. The ten complex conflicts have mostly each been described on a single page and roles each described in a short paragraph. Descriptions include questionnaires intended for game theorist participants.

  • Artists Protest: Members of a rich nation’s artists’ union occupied a major gallery and demanded generous financial support from their government. What will be the final resolution of the artists’ sit-in?

  • Distribution Channel: An appliance manufacturer proposed to a supermarket chain a novel arrangement for retailing their wares. Will the management of the supermarket chain agree to the plan?

  • 55% Pay Plan: Professional sports players demanded a 55 percent share of gross revenues and threatened to go on strike if the owners didn’t concede. Will there be a strike and, if so, how long will it last?

  • Journal Negotiations: Editors have asked their journal’s publisher for better terms and have received an unfavourable response. What agreement do the parties come to?

  • Nurses Dispute: Angry nurses increased their pay demand and threatened more strike action after specialist nurses and junior doctors received big increases. What will the outcome of their negotiations be?

  • Panalba Drug Policy: The FDA has started moves to ban a profitable Upjohn’s drug. How will the Upjohn’s board decide to respond? [Note that the aspect of this situation that is described in the material does NOT involve interaction between the parties involved in the conflict.]

  • Personal grievance: An employee demanded a meeting with a mediator when her job was down-graded after an evaluation by her new manager. What will the outcome of the meeting with the mediator be?

  • Telco takeover: An acquisitive telecommunications provider, after rejecting an offer to buy the mobile business of another, made a hostile bid for the whole corporation. How will the stand-off between the companies be resolved?

  • Water dispute: Troops from neighbouring nations moved to their common border and the downstream nation threatened to bomb a new upstream dam. Will the upstream neighbour agree to release additional water and, if not, how will the downstream nation’s government respond?

  • Zenith Investment: A large manufacturer evaluated an investment in expensive new technology in the face of political pressure. How many new manufacturing plants will the corporation decide to commission?

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For Educators

  • The U.S. Institute of Peace site provides materials for students to role-play conflicts as well as a guide on using simulations.

  • Self-learning, Self-Certification Courses offered by forecastingprinciples.com

    Self-learning courses can be more effective for learning than traditional courses. Remember to complete the course and examination before looking at the answers.

    • Forecasting using Structured Analogies (Beta version - Please send This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. your comments and suggestions)
    • Simulated interaction – a method for forecasting decisions in conflicts (Beta version – Please send This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. your comments and suggestions)

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The material for this Special Interest Group is organized and submitted by This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. – Please contact him for further information, and corrections, additions, or suggestions for these pages