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Kate J. Bowers, Shane D. Johnson, Ken Pease, “Prospective Hot-Spotting,”
Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science, University College London, Third Floor, 1 Old Street London, EC1V 9HL.

Recent research conducted by the authors demonstrates that the risk of burglary is communicable, with properties within 400 meters of a burgled household being at a significantly elevated risk of victimization for up to two months after an initial event. We discuss how, using this knowledge, recorded crime data can be analyzed to generate an ever-changing prospective risk surface…>

Full text of six papers from Special Section on Crime Forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 19, No. 4 (October-November 2003).

The six papers comprising the special section represent the first effort to establish this new application area. For over 30 years, businesses have forecasted product demand to improve planning and increase efficiency. It was not until recently, however, that advances in crime theories and widespread diffusion of IT and management innovations in police departments made forecasting feasible and relevant for police. The special section addresses unique features and challenges of forecasting crime and presents corresponding modeling and methodological innovations.

Wired article, "Cloudy with a Chance of Theft," September 2003.

New Scientist article, "Computer Model Forecasts Crime Sprees," August 2003