The IIF's International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) is the premier international event for professional forecasters. Over the past 33 years, the ISF has been recognized for the important forecasting research presented there, and for having hosted highly respected experts in the field of forecasting.Read more...
In their new paper, Scott Armstrong, Kesten Green, and Andreas Graefe present a unifying theory of forecasting in the form of a Golden Rule of Forecasting. The rule is to be conservative. Being conservative in forecasting means applying all cumulative knowledge about the forecasting problem and using evidence-based methods.Read more...
The International Institute of Forecasters will grant travel awards to enable individuals from all over the world to attend the International Symposium on Forecasting in Rotterdam. Criteria for acceptance include the quality of the submission, how helpful attending the conference might be to the applicant's research agenda, and whether or not the paper might be publishable in the International Journal of Forecasting.
The deadline for applications is February 21, 2014. For more information, see the IIF site here.
You are invited to participate in a web-based judgmental forecasting exercise. You will be asked to select the best forecasting model, based on your judgment, for 32 time series.
The exercise consists of four rounds. Each round will contain 8 series and will be followed by a short questionnaire, while different types of information will be provided in addition to forecasts. Detailed instructions are provided prior to each round. You may complete the exercise in one session, or you can save your work to complete it later at your convenience.
At the end of the exercise you will be provided with your score. Your final performance will be calculated based on the rank of the models corresponding to your choices, according to the actual (out-of-sample) performance of each model. If your score is one of the top 20, you will be awarded an Amazon Gift Card valued at £50.
You can access the web-based exercise here: www.modelselection.eu
The U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) has issued a Request for Information on "Lessons Learned Knowledge Management" that may be of interest to forecasting researchers. For more information, see the RFI here.