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Important Errata for

J. Scott Long-Range Forecasting, 2nd Edition, 1985.
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Chapter

Page

Paragraph

Text Change

1

9

first

“my interpretations were correct”

3

44

last

“The subscription rates of those in the scenario exercise were about double …”

5

78

3

Makridakis and Wheelwright 1984: should read Wheelwright, Stephen C. and Makridakis, Spyros

6

102

last

“forecast the thickness of a thick piece of paper”

109

2

Rosenthal and Jacobsen (1968)

114

3

Armstrong & Lusk (1987)

7

155

4

Henrichs

159

3

“… an assumption of stability of the transition matrix is made when Markov chains are used.”

162

1

“winsorizing” [not windsorizing]

170

1

Schnaars and Bavuso [1986]

174

2

“… the moving average did not have a trend factor.” [no comma after average]

179

4

“… indicators. Simple smoothing …”

184

1

Geurts [not Geruts]

8

196

next to last

“… to choose variables that are”

226

5

“… I surveyed a group of leading econometricians [Armstrong, 1978].”

243

1

“for the simple regression.” [not single]

9

263

4

“… and then describes how the system changes over time.”

10

285

2

Delete “It is also found in the large scale econometric models.”

Exh. 10-5

X4 = years of seniority in the current job

12

322

3

“This chapter” instead of “Chapter 12”

327

1

“Both models were much more accurate than extrapolations during this period.”

13

344

Theil Table

“Root Mean Square Errors” for heading of columns 2-5

350

4

“R2 should not be used for the calibration sample. Instead you should use (the adjusted R2.”

352

Equation in 9

360

Exh. 13-9

Academics (n=62) and Practitioners (n=61)

14

384

6

“search for disconfirming evidence …”

15

403

last

“A survey on econometric forecasting was conducted in late 1975 (Armstrong 1978).”

405

2

“The results in the following table …” [no comma after results]

410

3

“… assumed that the 1960 party vote would be the same as the 1956 party vote”

412

1

“the econometric model … was more accurate than the three extrapolation methods”

17

445

1

Armstrong & Lusk (1987)

Appendices

459

2

“Suppose that data are available on the population of a region …”

(The growth term is squared because there are two 10-year intervals from 1960-1980.)

495

1

Schnaars and Bavuso [1986]

References

517

Armstrong 1978: (LRF 226, 403, 433)

518

Armstrong, Denniston, and Gordon 1975: Organizational Behavior and Human Performance; (LRF 58) [delete 181]

520

Bennion 1952: (LRF 199) [not 129]

Best 1974: (LRF 118, 119, 141)

529

Crow and Noel 1965: 1150 Silverado Street

547

Kaplan et al. 1950: (LRF 120-121, 136)

555

Mintz 1969: no parentheses around 875-881

557

Nelson 1972: American Economic Review, 52

564

Schneidman 1971: “Perturbation and Lethality …”

565

Sigall, H., Aronson, E., and van Hoose, T. 1970

574

Zajonc 1976: (LRF Page not available)

Updated Bibliography

578

Ackoff 1983: vol. 20

579

Ahlburg 1984: “A mechanical adjustment …”

581

Armstrong 1979: (LRF 437, 444) [not 437-444)

583

Armstrong 1984a: vol. 14 (Nov.-Dec.)

584

Add: Armstrong, J. Scott and Lusk, Edward J [1987], “Return Postage in Mail Surveys: A Meta-Analysis,” Public Opinion Quarterly, vol 51 (2), 233-248.

585

Ascher 1978: (LRF 47, 687)

591

Camerer 1981: “General conditions for the success of bootstrapping models,”

592

Carbone and Gorr 1985: Decisions Sciences, vol. 16, pp. 153-160 [replaces in press]

595

Collins 1976: “The segmented econometric models were more accurate …”

596

Replace Dalrymple 1985 reference for working paper: Dalrymple, Douglas J. [1987], “Sales forecasting practices: results from a 1983 U.S. survey,” International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 3, pp. 379-391.

599

Dielman 1985: Journal of Forecasting [not International Journal of Forecasting]

606

Fischer 1982: vol. 29

609

Gardner 1985b: Journal of Forecasting, vol. 4, pp. 1-28.

610

Glass 1976: (LRF 444)

Glass et al. 1981: (LRF 445)

620

Lawrence et al. 1985: International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 1, pp. 25-35.

623

Makridakis et al. 1982: (LRF … 348 …) [not 454]

624

Makridakis and Wheelwright 1984: should read Wheelwright, Stephen C. and Makridakis, Spyros

627

McWhorter et al. 1987 continuation, line 4: “… from 1950.I to 1970.IV”

628

Mitchell and Klimoski 1982 continuation, line 4: “ … used the same subsample, but it started …”

630

Morris 1981: “Will such procedures improve our ability to forecast? (My guess is “No.”) That is a good topic for further research.”

Mosteller and Tukey 1977: (LRF 24, 196, 341)

631

Murphy and Brown 1984: (LRF 142, 272, 424)

637

Reid et al. 1981: Journal of Advertising [not Journal of Advertising Research]

641

Schnaars and Bavuso 1986 [not 1985]: “Extrapolation models on very short-term forecasts,” Journal of Business Research, vol. 14, pp. 27-36.

643

Shrader et al. 1984: “… to 14 comparisons favoring formal planning, 4 ties, and 2 favoring informal planning.”

645

Stewart and Glantz 1985: vol 7, no. 2, pp. 159-183.

646

Sudman and Bradburn 1982 [not 1983]

648

Wagennar et al. 1985: Ergonomics, vol. 28, pp. 756-772.

People Index

654

Ascher [not ASCHER]

654

Add Ayton, Peter, 585

662

Makridakis, Spyros, omit 454

664

Ohlin, Lloyd E., 354, 558 [not 221, 531]

667

Stengel, Casey, 653 [not 753]

669

Wheelwright, Steven C., add 649

Subject Index

672

Anticipations, 536 [not 537]

673

Backcasting, add 343-345

680

Pharaoh [not Pharoh]

681

Political forecasting, 636, 646 [not 636-646]

683

Suicides, 564 [not 562]

Theil’s U, 579 [not 578]

685

Winsorizing [not Windsorizing]

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