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Compare your forecast for Chart A with the blue trend line in the following chart of temperatures. Monitor your Chart B forecast accuracy progress at The Climate Bet site. The Quiz is based on an idea from Warren Meyer's presentation of two charts cut and pasted from a larger temperature chart (see p. 48 of his presentation here).

Mystery_temp_result

Copy of "Mystery" temperature chart quiz result as pdf, here.

Grade your response out of 10*, as follows...

A squiggly line with a strong trend: 0

A squiggly line with a moderate trend: 1

A squiggly line with no obvious trend: 2

A straight line with a strong trend: 3

A straight line with a moderate trend**: 7

A straight line with no trend***: 10

*The grades are based on the principle that one should be conservative in forecasting when there is much uncertainty and complexity."

**Give yourself a 3 point bonus if your line matched the very modest downward trend exhibited by the actual temperature series over the 25 years you forecasted.

***Congratulations! Your forecast was consistent with the evidence-based forecasting principle of conservatism that applies on this situation.

Results for the Mystery Temperature Chart Quiz from an informal survey

# of responses

A squiggly line with a strong trend: 15

A squiggly line with a moderate trend: 8

A squiggly line with no obvious trend: 4

A straight line with a strong trend: 9

A straight line with a moderate trend: 5

A straight line with no trend: 9

A straight line that best matched the blue trend line above 1