Compare your forecast for Chart A with the blue trend line in the following chart of temperatures. Monitor your Chart B forecast accuracy progress at The Climate Bet site. The Quiz is based on an idea from Warren Meyer's presentation of two charts cut and pasted from a larger temperature chart (see p. 48 of his presentation here).
Copy of "Mystery" temperature chart quiz result as pdf, here.
Grade your response out of 10*, as follows...
A squiggly line with a strong trend: 0
A squiggly line with a moderate trend: 1
A squiggly line with no obvious trend: 2
A straight line with a strong trend: 3
A straight line with a moderate trend**: 7
A straight line with no trend***: 10
*The grades are based on the principle that one should be conservative in forecasting when there is much uncertainty and complexity."
**Give yourself a 3 point bonus if your line matched the very modest downward trend exhibited by the actual temperature series over the 25 years you forecasted.
***Congratulations! Your forecast was consistent with the evidence-based forecasting principle of conservatism that applies on this situation.
Results for the Mystery Temperature Chart Quiz from an informal survey
# of responses
A squiggly line with a strong trend: 15
A squiggly line with a moderate trend: 8
A squiggly line with no obvious trend: 4
A straight line with a strong trend: 9
A straight line with a moderate trend: 5
A straight line with no trend: 9
A straight line that best matched the blue trend line above 1