When forecasting outside of Italy, we advise forecasters to use evidence-based principles of forecasting. For example, forecasters should provide evidence-based information on uncertainty. Failing to use evidence-based principles seems to be the only sound basis to challenge bad forecastsâ€”other than intent to deceive, which sometimes occurs in financial markets. Consider the field of medicine: Doctors are often successful sued when they fail to use evidence-based procedures. For forecasting, we refer readers to "Standards and Practices for Forecasting". As far as we are aware, it is the only published list of evidence-based principles of forecasting. It contains a short review of law cases involving faulty forecasts in the last section.
Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green