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Selection Tree  E-mail

Select a Forecasting Method (Selection Tree)

The Selection Tree provides an effective scheme for selecting the best forecasting methods for a problem.

Click on Tree text to get get more information on the item.

Selection Tree Combine forecasts Use unadjusted forecasts Use adjusted forecasts (Structured judgmental adjustments) Omitted information Segmentation Causal models Many variables Much quantitative data Interactions, nonlinearities, or priorities Statistical Index Neural nets Extrapolation Rule-based forecasting Expert systems Quantitative analogies Structured analogies Role playing/ Simulated interaction Intentional expectations Self Domain Conjoint analysis Decomposition Judgmental bootstrapping Expert Forecasting Type of knowledge Unaided judgment Good domain knowledge Policy analysis Similar cases exist Policy analysis Large changes likely Type of data Conflict among a few decision makers Policy analysis Good knowledge of relationships Large changes expected Quantitative methods Judgmental methods Sufficient objective data Highly repetitive with learning Experimentation

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J Scott Armstrong
Kesten C Green
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