A resource for managers, practitioners, and researchers concerned with forecasting the decisions of parties in conflict. Forecasting decisions in conflicts is forecasting for:
buyer-seller negotiations
negotiations among distribution channel members
competitor reactions to new product introductions
industrial disputes
corporate takeovers
inter-communal conflicts
political negotiations
diplomatic and military confrontations.
countering terrorism
These pages are part of the Forecasting Principles site. In keeping with the objectives of the site they present research findings that support evidence-based principles (guidelines, prescriptions, rules, conditions, action statements, or advice about what to do in given situations).
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- Methods for forecasting in conflicts
- Current Conflicts in the world
-Papers, commentary, and relevant journals
- Resources for practitioners, researchers, and educators
- Mass media coverage of forecasting decisions in conflicts
- Conferences on conflicts and forecasting
- News
The material for this Special Interest Group is organized and submitted by Kesten Green – Please
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for further information, and corrections, additions, or suggestions for these pages.
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The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) has issued a request for information on forecasting for national security decision makers. more...
Copenhagen Business School and the University of Nottingham are organizing a Conference on International and Intercultural Negotiations on 8-9 April 2010 in Copenhagen. more...
The International Association for Conflict Management's 23rd Conference will be held in Boston on 24-27 June 2010. more...
The organising committee of the 4th IMA Conference on Analysing Conflict Transformation to be held on 28-30 June 2010 is calling for the submission of abstracts. more...
The International Symposium on Forecasting in June and the Conflict and Complexity conference in September both have offerings of interest to the conflict and terrorism forecasting communities. more...
The International Institute of Forecasters are now accepting applications for the 2008 SAS research grants valued at $5,000 each. more ...
Forecasting with analogies made headline news when President Bush suggested that the consequences of the US withdrawal from Vietnam would be repeated in Iraq if troops were withdrawn before stability was achieved. Analogies can be useful for forecasting, and Green and Armstrong's paper on their proper use appears in the next issue of the International Journal of Forecasting and is also available as a working paper.
How good are experts at predicting the decisions people will make in conflicts? An article by Green and Armstrong that answers this question has now been published in Interfaces 37(3) with commentaries by Goodwin, Kirkpatrick, Koehler, and Tetlock. A working paper version in Full Text.
Handfuls of international conflicts have erupted in most years since the end of WWI. The International Crises Behavior Project have released Version 7 of their database, which now includes descriptions and coding of conflicts to 2004.
visits to this website since February 14, 1998.