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War on Terrorism
War in Iraq
War on Terrorism
Forecasts on the War in Iraq
- Using a model based on statistics from previous wars, researchers Allan Stam and Scott Bennett forecast on April 2 that the war in Iraq would last 2.5 months.
- Mathematician John Allen Paulos tentatively predicted on March 30 (using Lanchester's Law) that US and British forces could be at a disadvantage relative to Iraqi troops if they were to become involved in house-to-house fighting.
- Four military historians were reported as predicting that the U.S. and British forces would fail to conquer Baghdad in a March 29 article in the Online Journal. Citing historical analogies, Dr. Manfred Messerschmidt, Dr. Gerd Krumeich, Dr. Bernhard Kroener, and Brigadier Helmut Hauff each dismissed the task as impossible. While most of the analogies cited by the experts involved the besieged city being taken, they argued that these cases were unusual or were different to the Baghdad situation in important respects.
- Middle East Quarterly editor Martin Kramer found disagreement among experts about political outcomes in Iraq in his article titled "Professional Pundits Place Iraq Bets". While Georgetown professor John Esposito and Columbia University appointee Rashid Khalidi both predicted the occupation of Iraq would lead to inflamed anti-Americanism and no democracy, Princeton emeritus professor Bernard Lewis and Johns Hopkins professor Fouad Ajami predicted enlightenment, modernity, and democracy would prevail.
- Before the war in Iraq had begun, George Freeman – from the Boston-based consultancy Stratfor – forecast it would be over by mid-April. Commentators discuss Stratfor's record in the same item. Up-to-date forecasts on the war in Iraq and other conflicts are available on Stratfor's site.
an e-mail message providing details if you know of a specific forecast of a current conflict that you think should be listed here. You should include:
a brief description of the conflict
the forecasting method
the identity of the forecaster
contact information for the forecaster.
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