Share this post
FaceBook  Twitter  

The Golden Rule of Forecasting is,

"be conservative" when forecasting by relying on cummulative knowledge about the situation and about forecasting.

Evidence on the Golden Rule and guidelines on how to implement the Rule are described in"

Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Graefe, A. (2015). Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative. Journal of Business Research, 1717-1731. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.031  


NEW! The Golden Rule of Forecasting App for Android devices is available to download from Google, here.


  • The working paper by J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Andreas Graefe is available here.
  • The article "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative" is forthcoming in the Journal of Business Research, and is published online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.031
  • Green, Armstrong, & Graefe's response to commentators, titled "Golden rule of forecasting rearticulated: Forecast unto others as you would have them forecast unto you" is available as a working paper here, and is published online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.036
  • The Golden Rule of Forecasting Checklist is available here.
  • The Golden Rule of Forecasting Checklist software is an online tool available here, and from clicking the golden button, below.
  • Data on error increases from ignoring Golden Rule of Forecasting Checklist guidelines is summarized in the spreadsheet here.  
  • A copy of an online questionnaire used to ask forecasting experts for feedback on the guidelines proposed for the Golden Rule of Forecasting Checklist is available here
  • The responses to the online questionnaire on the Golden Rule of Forecasting Checklist are available in an Excel spreadsheet here.
  • A copy of the slides for the paper presented at the International Symposium in Forecasting in Seoul (June 2013) is here.
  • And a copy of the slides for the paper presented at the International Symposium in Forecasting in Rotterdam (June 2014) is here.

 

Golden Rule Checklist  


Application of the Golden Rule Checklist at the International Symposium on Forecasting 2015, Riverside

Scott Armstrong presented a paper by himself and Kesten Green illustrating the application of the Golden Rule of Forecasting checklist using the example of climate forecasting. Their paper was titled "Applications of the Golden Rule".

  • The abstract and slides for "Are dangerous warming forecasts consistent with the Golden Rule" are available to download from here.
  • A supporting flyer is available from here.

Kesten Green presented a paper by Andreas Graefe, himself, and Scott Armstrong illustrating the application of three Golden Rule of Forecasting checklist items that apply particularly to causal methods to improving the performance of established election forecasting models. Application of the Golden Rule Guideline items led to a simple model, and a 45% error reduction. Their paper was titled "Effect of conservatism on the accuracy of forecasts from econometric models".

  • The abstract and slides for "Effect of conservatism on the accuracy of forecasts from econometric models" are available to download from ResearchGate here.

 

Page last updated 29 November 2015