In their paper in the latest issue of the International Journal of Forecasting, Kesten Green, Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon cast doubt on the need for concern over dangerous manmade global warming that is prima face motivation for the Copenhagen summit taking place this week. The authors' simple evidence-based model produced forecasts that were over seven times more accurate than forecasts from the procedures used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); the official provider of advice on climate change. A summary of the implications for the Copenhagen summit is available here.
Some places are still available for Lancaster's course starting on 2-3 December with a second two-day block by arrangement. Some experience in forecasting is assumed. The course will consist of hands-on-training (using mainly MS Excel) on:
- Fundamentals of forecasting
- Statistical forecasting methods
- Limitations of Naive methods
- The effect of moving & weighted averages
- Selecting and Parameterising Exponential Smoothing methods
- Econometric methods
- Understanding single regression
- Extending information to multiple regression
- Building dynamic regression including dummy variables & seasonality
- Forecast evaluation through unbiased forecast errors
- Role & adequate use of judgement in forecasting
- Examples of Forecasting software etc.
A new Foresight Anthology is now available. The Anthology is titled "How to Evaluate, Manage, and Improve Your Forecasting Process." You can inspect the Anthology contents and place an order here. The price is $45 or $19 for IIF members and Foresight subscribers. More information about the journal Foresight is available on our Journals page.
The web site for the 2010 International Symposium on Forecasting in San Diego, California, is now up and running. The conference is to be held from 20 to 23 June at the Manchester Grand Hyatt. Key dates include 4 January, deadline for submission of invited session proposals, and 1 March, deadline for abstract submission. Go to the Conferences Page for more information and a link to the ISF site.