Scientific forecasting with the help of New Zealand school girls picked Obama would win as early as mid- 2007.

In “Predicting elections from politicians’ faces” Armstrong, Green, Jones, and Wright found that McCain was judged more competent-looking that his Republican rivals but was judged less competent-looking than President-elect Obama. more ...

We recently commissioned Zoe Communications to design and implement a site that would be easier for visitors to use and contribute to,  one that would be easier for the directors and special interest group managers to make changes to and keep up-to-date. We are pleased with the results, and that hope you are too.

The site now has a Forum for discussions on forecasting matters. We welcome Forum discussions on forecasting research and practice as well as the application of forecasting to newsworthy problems.

In keeping with changes to the Forecasting Method Selection Tree, we have now updated the Forecasting Methodology Tree to specifically include the Index method on the new Causal Methods branch of the Tree, along with Statistical methods (e.g. regression) and Segmentation. Following the helpful suggestions of Mladen Sokele, we have eliminated the tentative link between Neural Nets and Data Mining and have changed the link from Expert Systems to Causal Models to a bidirectional link to better reflect the flow of knowledge. Reintroducing the pop-up windows, which provide explanation and links, is still on our to-do list. Please share your ideas for further improvements to the Trees using the Forum, or email us directly.

The initiative and sponsorship for the improvements we have made to the site came from past and present members of the International Institute of Forecasters Board. We are grateful to the Board for their practical help and encouragement. As a result of the changes, there have been twice as many visits to the site on each of the days since the changeover.

On a dangerous journey from Troy to Ithaca, what would you like the captain of your boat to look like?

In a paper published in Science, Antonakis and Dalgas show that judgments based on political candidates’ faces were reliable forecasts of election outcomes. What is new in the study is that judgments made by little children (from 5-13 years old) were as predictive as those made by adults. more…