The Golden Rule of Forecasting is to "be conservative" in the sense of adhering to cumulative knowledge. The Rule can be implemented by following 28 operational guidelines, based on cumulative knowledge about forecasting, in the form of a Checklist. The Golden Rule applies to all areas of forecasting. We will introduce The Golden Rule Checklist software at the International Symposium of Forecasting in Rotterdam on June 30.
The annual conference of the Operational Research Society is to be held at Royal Holloway, University of London, in Egham, Surrey (close to London), between September 9 and 11, 2014.
To submit an abstract for presentation at the conference, visit this page. Abstracts are limited to 300 words. Both abstracts on academic forecasting research and applications in forecasting practice are welcome. The deadline for abstract submission is June 16, 2014.
Visit the conference website for more information.
The IIF's International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) is the premier international event for professional forecasters. Over the past 33 years, the ISF has been recognized for the important forecasting research presented there, and for having hosted highly respected experts in the field of forecasting.
In their new paper, Scott Armstrong, Kesten Green, and Andreas Graefe present a unifying theory of forecasting in the form of a Golden Rule of Forecasting. The rule is to be conservative. Being conservative in forecasting means applying all cumulative knowledge about the forecasting problem and using evidence-based methods.