Recently, Nate Silver challenged Joe Scarborough to a $2,000 bet on the presidential election outcome after the latter called the New York Times blogger a partisan for predicting the Obama will win reelection. With Polly the election forecasting parrot on his shoulder, "Cap'n" Scott Armstrong has offered to join "Long" Nate Silver in his bet against Joe "Talking" Scarborough.

As we move into the final days for the election, you might find the forecasts on to be of interest. The PollyVote combines forecasts within each method (e.g., polls, econometric models, betting markets) and then averages across the methods. It forecasts the two-party split for the popular vote and is updated daily.

Rob Hyndman's latest list—NEP: New Economic Papers, Forecasting—is available, complete with abstracts and links to working paper versions.

The publisher of the International Journal of Forecasting has provided a list of five articles selected by the editors of the journal as being particularly important. The list, with links to the articles, is available here.
On September 21, 2011 we reported on the lawsuit against scientists who provided earthquake forecasts to the Italian government.