"Who do you think will win the U.S. presidential election?" A new paper by Andreas Graefe shows that surveys of citizens' expectations provide forecasts of who will win the election that are more accurate than forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts' judgments, and econometric models. For more information and a copy of the paper, see PollyVote.com. Expections are currently predicting a win for President Obama.
The IIF, in collaboration with SAS®, is proud to announce financial support for research on how to improve forecasting methods and business forecasting practice. The deadline date for submissions has been extended to 12 October 2012. For more information, see here.
There is plenty of election forecasting excitment at PollyVote.com's Presidential election forecasting headquarters. Today's three items report that the "Big Issue" model predicts a very narrow win to the Republican candidate on a two party vote count; the PollyVote model now includes more poll aggregators; and Polly's expert panel predicts a narrow popular vote victory for President Obama. Yesterday saw the addition of two political economy models, which both predict Mitt Romney will win the popular vote. For more detail, and to see how it all comes together in the PollyVote 2012 forecast, go to PollyVote.com.

The 2012 American Political Science Association's meeting in New Orleans on 30 August to 2 September features panels sessions on "Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election" (Abramowitz, Campbell, Norpoth, Bednarczuk, Lewis-Beck, Tien, Erikson, Wlezien), "New Approaches to Forecasting Presidential Elections" (Jérôme, Jerome, Graefe, Armstrong, Bednarczuk, Velez, McIver), and "Economic and Historical Models of Presidential Elections" (Cuzan, Lichtman, Brox). The Political Forecasting Group's Business Meeting is on the evening of 30 August. For more information on political forecasting, check out the Special Interest Group.

The recent International Symposium on Forecasting in Boston included a panel session on Evidence-based Improvements to Climate Forecasting. The session consisted of a paper by Kesten Green, Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon commenting on the recent contribution on the topic in the IJF by Robert Fildes and Nikolaos Kourentzes