"Who do you think will win the U.S. presidential election?" A new paper by Andreas Graefe shows that surveys of citizens' expectations provide forecasts of who will win the election that are more accurate than forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts' judgments, and econometric models. For more information and a copy of the paper, see PollyVote.com. Expections are currently predicting a win for President Obama.
The IIF, in collaboration with SASÂ®, is proud to announce financial support for research on how to improve forecasting methods and business forecasting practice. The deadline date for submissions has been extended to 12 October 2012. For more information, see here.
There is plenty of election forecasting excitment at PollyVote.com's Presidential election forecasting headquarters. Today's three items report that the "Big Issue" model predicts a very narrow win to the Republican candidate on a two party vote count; the PollyVote model now includes more poll aggregators; and Polly's expert panel predicts a narrow popular vote victory for President Obama. Yesterday saw the addition of two political economy models, which both predict Mitt Romney will win the popular vote. For more detail, and to see how it all comes together in the PollyVote 2012 forecast, go to PollyVote.com.
The Forecasting Principles site summarizes all useful knowledge about forecasting so that it can be used by researchers, practitioners, and educators. The site is devoted to improving decision making by furthering scientific forecasting.