The International Institute of Forecasters has just launched a new website. The site has a fresh look, includes a blog, and lists job openings for forecasters.
The advantages, besides the low price and the weight reduction, are that it can aid just-in-time learning when people face forecasting problems, and can be easily searched by keywords. Click on the book icon in the right-hand menu.
Emre Soyer and Robin M. Hogarth's paper, "The illusion of predictability: How regression statistics mislead experts", appears in the latest issue of the International Journal of Forecasting. It is an important paper that deals with the widespread misuse of regression analysis when applied to non-experimental data. The article is accompanied by Commentary.
Kenneth Wallis, Emeritus Professor of Econometrics, University of Warwick, Featured Speaker at the 32nd International Symposium on Forecasting in Boston will be giving a talk titled "The Measurement and Characteristics of Professional Forecasters' Uncertainty". Professor Wallis will examine macroeconomic forecast uncertainty as measured by the personal probabilities of professional forecasters. The Symposium is being held at the Marriott Copley Place from 24 to 27 June 2012.
William of Occam wrote, "It is vain to do with more what can be done with fewer". A call for papers from the Journal of Business Research asks, what is the right level of complexity for forecasting methods and how does it vary with the conditions? Researchers are invited to send proposals for experimental studies examining multiple reasonable hypotheses, replications and extensions of important studies, and meta-analyses of evidence on simple versus complex forecasting methods and the effect of conditions on forecast accuracy for this Special Issue of the Journal of Business Research. The deadline for detailed proposals is 30 November, 2012, and the CFP is available here.