Prediction markets for hurricanes For those of you who are interested in prediction markets and/or natural hazards, an experimental prediction market this currently being run on hurricanes, where the proceeds are going to the Red Cross--up to $15k if they can get enough people to join, plus 3 people are randomly selected to receive $1000. The market centers on predicting U.S. hurricane landfall locations for this season, and earnings depend on one’s skill in forecasting where this season's hurricanes will strike the U.S. gulf and Atlantic coasts. The experiment is being run by a private company (Weather Risk Solutions), who have designed the market as a potential means by which coastal homeowners might someday be able to hedge against hurricane losses. It is currently being run as an academic experiment, and hope to share any of the trading data with academics who might have an interest (email me if you are interested).
If you are interested, visit the site: www.hurlos.com, where they will set you up with $5000 in play money. They will donate $5 to the Red Cross for the first 3,000 people who participate, and at the end of the season randomly pick 3 people to receive a $1,000 cash prize (in real money). |
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New evidence on the relative accuracy of prediction marketsThe paper Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task by Andreas Graefe and Scott Armstrong was accepted for publication with the International Journal of Forecasting. The study presents results from a laboratory experiment, in which traditional face-to-face meetings were compared to three structured group methods (i.e., prediction markets, nominal groups, and the Delphi method) on a quantitative judgment task. Overall, Delphi performed best, followed by nominal groups, and prediction markets. As expected, unstructured interaction in meetings yielded the least accurate results. However, differences were small. Furthermore, as one would expect, the three structured approaches yielded more accurate results than participants' prior individual estimates. However, only in the case of Delphi, the group results were more accurate than a simple average of the prior individual estimates. Prediction markets and nominal groups provided little additional value compared to such staticized groups in situations where people drew upon similar information The authors also examined participants’ perceptions of the group and the group process. Participants rated personal communication more favorable than computer-mediated interaction. Group interaction in meetings and nominal groups was perceived as highly cooperative and effective. Prediction markets were rated least favorable. Prediction market participants were least satisfied with the group process and perceived their method as most difficult. |
New Zealand Prediction Market ipredict more accurate than polls"Research out of the University of Michigan shows New Zealand prediction market iPredict significantly outperformed pollsters in the 2008 election. iPredict was the second-most accurate forecaster across the 2008 election campaign, beating all but one pollster and all ‘polls of polls’." Read more. |
Hollywood Stock Exchange soon a real-money prediction market The HSX will begin real-money trading on April 20. |
Predict Copenhagen!The Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets (CEEM) at the University of New South Wales, is recruiting participants for an academic research project, with prizes sponsored by Baker & McKenzie. The goal of the project is to provide a forecast of the outcomes of the Copenhagen Climate Conference (Conference of Parties, COP15) using a Prediction Market. Register at www.coppm.org. |
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