Use these quick links to jump to the relevant section of this page:
For Practitioners
For Researchers
For Educators
For Practitioners
Individuals and Organizations providing help, advice, or data
Forecasting
- International Institute of Forecasters (IIF)
- NewsFutures prediction markets
- Principles of Forecasting Home Page
- Scott Armstrong
- Kesten Green
- Foresight Exchange prediction markets
- Tradesports.com prediction markets
- Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism
Conflict Management and Negotiation
- Nobel Foundation’s maps show the locations and brief descriptions of conflicts that have occurred since the beginning of the 20th Century.
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology Department of Geography’s ViewConflicts pages provide maps and details of conflicts that have occurred since 1946.
- Association for Conflict Resolution
- CRInfo: A Comprehensive Gateway to Conflict Resolution Resources
- The Fund for Peace (FfP) Conflict Prevention and Recovery Program
- IACM International Association for Conflict Management
- International Conflict Resolution: Information Sources
- Interplay: Developing a Forecasting Service for Negotiators
- Nigel Howard's drama theory website, Dilemmas Galore
- Sanda Kaufman's conflict resolution resources
- United States Institute of Peace (USIP)
Judgment and Decision Making
Strategy
- Strategic Management Society
- Other strategy links
- Influential books
Politics and War
- CIA Special Collections: Cold War Era Hard Target Analysis of Soviet and Chinese Policy and Decision Making, 1953-1973 [pdf]
- National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). A Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security based at the University of Maryland that publishes research and maintains the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) with information on over 80,000 terrorist attacks since 1970.
- MIT Security Studies Program research and teaching.
- International Crisis Behavior (ICB) and version 7 of the ICB dataset (May, 2007)
- Keesing’s Record of World Events (subscription only).
- Brookings Institution working paper, Poverty and Civil War: What Policymakers Need to Know
- Political Instability Task Force research findings, databases, and links. (See "Reports and Replication Data Sets" for technical reports.)
- NationMaster provides data and software to make convenient comparisons between countries.
- The Lugar Survey on Proliferation Threats and Responses (2005)
- Nobel Foundation’s maps show the locations and brief descriptions of conflicts that have occurred since the beginning of the 20th Century.
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology Department of Geography’s ViewConflicts pages provide maps and details of conflicts that have occurred since 1946.
- 99 Crucial Sites on 20th Century American Military History
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Centre for Security and Defence Studies (CSDS) - Force and Statecraft
- Located within PRIO (see below) is the Centre for the Study of Civil War (CSCW) which researches the causes of civil war and maintains databases on conflicts.
- Correlates of War 2
- Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP), including methodology reports
- countryrisk.com, 'The country analysis resource'"
- Global Security.org links
- Hoover Institution Guide to Scholars
- International Crisis Behavior (ICB) and version 6.0 of the ICB dataset (January 30, 2006)
- International Political Science Association
- Kansas Event Data System (KEDS) project
- MIT Cascon System for Analyzing International Conflict
- NewsFutures prediction markets
- Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) conducts research on conflict resolution and peace building
- Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism
- Program on Non-violent Sanctions and Cultural Survival (PONSACS)
- Report of the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction
- USIP's Terrorism/Counter-Terrorism Web Links
- World Bank's Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Unit
- World Bank's research program, The Economics of Civil War, Crime and Violence
- Other political science links
Terrorism Forecasting Resources
- National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). A Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security based at the University of Maryland that publishes research and maintains the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) with information on over 80,000 terrorist attacks since 1970.
- The Lugar Survey on Proliferation Threats and Responses (2005)
- Centre for Defence and International Security Studies database of terrorism incidents from 1945-1998
- Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism
- Hoover Institution experts on terrorism
- United States Institute for Peace's Terrorism/Counter-terrorism Web Links
- U.S. Department of Defense news about the war on terrorism
Game Theory and Experimental Economics
- Game Theory Society
- Game theory net
- Smeal College Laboratory for Economic Management and Auctions (see "Links")
Influential Books and Lists of Books That May be Useful
Forecasting
- J. Scott Armstrong, Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, 2001.
- J. Scott Armstrong, Long Range Forecasting, 2nd ed., 1985. A full-text PDF version is available on-line.
- Harold A. Linsone and Murray Turoff (eds), The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications, 1975. A full-text PDF version is available on-line.
- Other books relevant to forecasting
- New books received for reviewing in the International Journal of Forecasting
Conflict Management
- CRInfo resources, select "Summaries" for books
Judgment and Decision Making
- Cambridge University Press catalogue, put "decision making" in the "Series" field
- Harold A. Linsone and Murray Turoff (eds), The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications, 1975. A full-text pdf version is available on-line.
Strategy
- Strategic Management Society's list of Influential Books
Politics
- IPSA's Noteworthy Books
Game Theory and Experimental Economics
- Game Theory Society's Books of Interest
- Game Theory Net's lists of books (includes strategy classics)
- John H. Kagel and Alvin E. Roth (Eds.), The Handbook of Experimental Economics, 1995.
- Barry Silverman's resource on research into human behavior models
Tools and software (under development)
For Researchers
- Need for further research
Considering the frequency and cost of inaccurate forecasts, there has been remarkably little research comparing methods for forecasting decisions in conflicts. Research along the following lines is needed:
- determine the conditions that favour different methods
- replicate previous research
- forecast conflicts that are unresolved at the time of forecasting
- examine the effect of the number of decision options on accuracy
- investigate forecasting conflicts in stages
- investigate the effect of variations in descriptions.
- Politics and War research
- MIT Security Studies Program research and teaching.
- International Crisis Behavior (ICB) and version 7 of the ICB dataset (May, 2007)
- Keesing’s Record of World Events (subscription only).
- Political Instability Task Force research findings, databases, and links. (See "Reports and Replication Data Sets" for technical reports.)
- CIRI Human Rights Data Project
- NationMaster provides data and software to make convenient comparisons between countries.
- Nobel Foundation’s maps show the locations and brief descriptions of conflicts that have occurred since the beginning of the 20th Century.
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology Department of Geography’s ViewConflicts pages provide maps and details of conflicts that have occurred since 1946.
- Gary King’s homepage includes links to state failure and other data, and software
- National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). A Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security based at the University of Maryland that publishes research and maintains the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) with information on over 80,000 terrorist attacks since 1970.
- Combating Terrorism: Research Priorities in the Social, Behavioral Sciences and Economic Sciences, a report from the Office of the President, National Science and Technology Council.
- Department of Homeland Security's research and technology page
- Homeland Security Behavioral Research Center
- DARPA's home page
- American Psychological Association's Combating Terrorism: Responses from the Behavioral Sciences
- Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management(electronic)
- Studies in Conflict and Terrorism (available in electronic form)
- Red Team Journal: Strategic vulnerability assessment
- Jane's reports and analyses of security matters.
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Conflict descriptions
The ten diverse conflicts described below have been used in research on forecasting decisions in conflicts. They are all conflicts that actually occurred – all but two were disguised in their descriptions in order to avoid research participants identifying them. Five were written by Scott Armstrong and colleagues. They are: Artists Protest, Distribution Channel, 55% Pay Plan, Journal Negotiations, and Panalba Drug Policy. More recently, Kesten Green wrote Nurses Dispute, Personal Grievance, Telco Takeover, Water Dispute, and Zenith Investment.
You may be surprised at the length of the situation and role descriptions. The ten complex conflicts have mostly each been described on a single page and roles each described in a short paragraph. Descriptions include questionnaires intended for game theorist participants.
Artists Protest: Members of a rich nation’s artists’ union occupied a major gallery and demanded generous financial support from their government. What will be the final resolution of the artists’ sit-in?
Distribution Channel: An appliance manufacturer proposed to a supermarket chain a novel arrangement for retailing their wares. Will the management of the supermarket chain agree to the plan?
55% Pay Plan: Professional sports players demanded a 55 percent share of gross revenues and threatened to go on strike if the owners didn’t concede. Will there be a strike and, if so, how long will it last?
Journal Negotiations: Editors have asked their journal’s publisher for better terms and have received an unfavourable response. What agreement do the parties come to?
Nurses Dispute: Angry nurses increased their pay demand and threatened more strike action after specialist nurses and junior doctors received big increases. What will the outcome of their negotiations be?
Panalba Drug Policy: The FDA has started moves to ban a profitable Upjohn’s drug. How will the Upjohn’s board decide to respond? [Note that the aspect of this situation that is described in the material does NOT involve interaction between the parties involved in the conflict.]
Personal grievance: An employee demanded a meeting with a mediator when her job was down-graded after an evaluation by her new manager. What will the outcome of the meeting with the mediator be?
Telco takeover: An acquisitive telecommunications provider, after rejecting an offer to buy the mobile business of another, made a hostile bid for the whole corporation. How will the stand-off between the companies be resolved?
Water dispute: Troops from neighbouring nations moved to their common border and the downstream nation threatened to bomb a new upstream dam. Will the upstream neighbour agree to release additional water and, if not, how will the downstream nation’s government respond?
Zenith Investment: A large manufacturer evaluated an investment in expensive new technology in the face of political pressure. How many new manufacturing plants will the corporation decide to commission?
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Papers
Supplementary Information for Green and Armstrong, "Structured Analogies for Forecasting: A Test Using Conflict Situations"
For Educators
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The U.S. Institute of Peace site provides materials for students to role-play conflicts as well as a guide on using simulations.
- Self-learning, Self-Certification Courses offered by forecastingprinciples.com
Self-learning courses can be more effective for learning than traditional courses. Remember to complete the course and examination before looking at the answers.
- Forecasting using Structured Analogies (Beta version - Please send This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. your comments and suggestions)
- Simulated interaction – a method for forecasting decisions in conflicts (Beta version – Please send This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. your comments and suggestions)
The material for this Special Interest Group is organized and submitted by This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. – Please contact him for further information, and corrections, additions, or suggestions for these pages