Dear Colleagues,

We are in the process of recruiting knowledgeable people to participate in a multi-year study of forecasting. It is sponsored by IARPA (Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency). This unclassified project is designed by P.I.s at the University of Pennsylvania and the University of California, Berkeley. It involves a multi-disciplinary effort to understand how people use the knowledge they have to develop expectations about the future and what sorts or processes and strategies lead to success. There are several teams recruiting participants. Ours builds on Phil Tetlock’s work on Expert Political Judgment and is led by him, Barbara Mellers and Don Moore. We hope you will agree to join us and lend us some of your time.

We need to recruit a substantial number of people who have a serious interest in and knowledge about world affairs, politics, and global economic matters--and are interested in testing their own forecasting and reasoning skills. So please consider visiting the project web-site at You will find what you need to register there and more information about the project.

Thank you for your help.

Philip Tetlock, Psychology and the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Barb Mellers, Psychology and the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Don Moore, The Haas School, University of California, Berkeley