Find out what will happen at the The 31st Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, June 26-29, 2011 in Prague
The world is still suffering from the effects of a banking crisis that most experts didn’t see coming. Peering anew into the economic future in Prague will be Jan Fischer, former Czech Prime Minister and current Vice President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Frank Diebold from The Wharton School, and Ed Leamer from the macroeconomic forecasting unit at UCLA. Mr. Fischer’s title asks the awkward question that many consumers of forecasts will have asked themselves: “Macroeconomic forecasts: Betraying us when most needed?”
Still contentious as we await the results of the next United Nations sponsored review is the hot topic of climate forecasting. David Stainforth from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment will give a talk titled "Limits to the Forecastability of Climate Change and its Consequences". Meanwhile, J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten Green and Lubos Motl find that global warming alarmism is an anti-scientific political movement, and forecast that its decline will continue.
With the 2012 U.S. Presidential election buildup well underway Michael Lewis-Beck, from the University of Iowa, discusses the importance of political forecasting. Andreas Graefe of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology and Scott Armstrong introduce the newly designed PollyVote model. The previous PollyVote model was spot on in predicting the 2004 and 2008 elections, so there is little possibility of improving accuracy. However, the revisions include index models. Index models can be used to help decide on policies, such as using biographical information to determine which candidates are likely to do best against Obama. Predictions will be presented for each of the candidates.